Oscar Predictions -February 13, 2016

Because of going to Sundance and being busy, I haven’t posted much about the Oscars.  In fact, I didn’t even do a nomination reactions piece or anything.  It was just an area that got lost in shuffle of everything else.

I was pretty good on my final predictions.  I missed a couple nominees here and there, but overall, I thought I did good.  No real surprises in the nominations and not a lot of huge snubs.  The biggest snubs in my opinion were “Straight Outta Compton” for Best Picture, Idris Elba for Best Supporting Actor in “Beasts of No Nation” and Aaron Sorkin for Best Adapted Screenplay for “Steve Jobs”.  Other than that, I’m okay with the nominations.

Now when it comes to the winners, that’s still up in the air, especially for Best Picture.  Here are my current predictions of who’s going to win the major categories.

 

BEST PICTURE 

Usually around this time, we have an idea of who is going to win, or at least have it narrowed down to two films, with one usually ahead of the other.  This year is still up in the air, as three different films have won the three biggest guilds.  “The Big Short” won the PGA, “Spotlight” won SAG, and “The Revenant” won the DGA.  These are the top three, but the surprising love for “Room” and “Mad Max: Fury Road” could be spoilers, especially with preferential voting.  I like “The Big Short” right now, as it is the most universally nominated and loved, but I still have no idea.

1- THE BIG SHORT

2- THE REVENANT

3- SPOTLIGHT

4- MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

5- ROOM

6- THE MARTIAN

7- BRIDGE OF SPIES

8- BROOKLYN

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu made history by winning the DGA for his second year in a row. Will this translate into Oscar gold?  As of now, I think so.  “The Revenant” is a directors film and people will notice that.  The love for “The Big Short” is undeniable, so McKay could ride that train.  And George Miller could pull an upset for his unique and masterful vision.

1- ALEJANDRO GONZALEZ INARRITU – THE REVENANT

2- Adam McKay – The Big Short

3- George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road

4- Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

5- Lenny Abrahamson – Room

BEST ACTOR

Not much to say in this category.  Bet the house of DiCaprio.  It’s his time and it is going to be glorious.

1- LEONARDO DICAPRIO – THE REVENANT

2- Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs

3- Bryan Cranston – Trumbo

4- Matt Damon – The Martian

5- Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

BEST ACTRESS

Similar to Best Actor, Brie Larson has run through the competition and is on her way to earning her much deserved Oscar.  Saoirse Ronan could possibly spoil, but I doubt it.

1 – BRIE LARSON – ROOM

2- Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

3- Cate Blanchett – Carol

4- Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

5- Jennifer Lawrence – Joy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is such a weird category.  The nominations were not what I expected, but I love them. Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo were surprise nominees and will take their nominations as their prize.  Mark Rylance has been nominated for everything, but doesn’t have the meaty performance to win.  Christian Bale is incredible in “The Big Short” and could get another statue.  But, this award belongs to Sylvester Stallone reprising Rocky Balboa in “Creed”.  He’s great in it, he’s making his rounds, its the story of the year, he’s going to win.

1 – SYLVESTER STALLONE – CREED

2- Christian Bale – The Big Short

3- Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies

4- Tom Hardy – The Revenant

5- Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

When the nominees were first announced, I thought it was anyone’s game.  As usual, we get some performances that should be considered Lead, but have landed in Supporting.  I think the Academy is going to award Alicia Vikander for her body of work in 2015, which was one of the most impressive I’ve seen from any actor in any year.  Kate Winslet might be her stiffest competition for her Golden Globe winning performance in “Steve Jobs”.

1- ALICIA VIKANDER – THE DANISH GIRL

2- Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

3- Rooney Mara – Carol

4- Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight

5- Rachel McAdams – Spotlight

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

I like that “Straight Outta Compton” got a nomination here.  It could ride the #OscarSoWhite campaign to a win.  It would be a worthy winner, but I don’t think that will be the case.  This is where “Spotlight” will be rewarded for its brilliant procedural.

1 – SPOTLIGHT 

2- Inside Out

3- Straight Outta Compton

4- Bridge of Spies

5- Ex-Machina

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

I thought this was Aaron Sorkin’s to lose for his powerhouse screenplay for “Steve Jobs”.  However, not being nominated makes it hard for him to win, so I am going with Adam McKay’s tricky and darkly funny screenplay for “The Big Short”.  It is one of the frontrunners for the big prize and it is the best in the category.  “Room” could play spoiler, as the Academy seems to like it enough to give it a Best Director nomination.

1- THE BIG SHORT

2- Room

3- The Martian

4- Brooklyn

5- Carol

 

Do you agree of disagree with my predictions?  Comment below, or hit me up on Twitter @kevflix or on Facebook at Kevflix.

 

Images courtesy of YouTube.